Almost a third of the carbon-reducing cooling effect of planting trees is offset by changes to atmospheric chemistry and the amount of sunlight reflected back into space, the Times reports, citing a widely covered new study in Science. The paper quotes study lead author Dr James Weber saying: “We’re not saying trees are bad. We’re saying trees have a part to play, but we need to think about how they affect the whole Earth system…Trees are not a substitute for carrying on as we are. We need to cut emissions at the same time.” It adds: “The implication, he said, is that countries may have to decarbonise their economies more deeply rather than banking too much on tree-planting.” New Scientist says the cooling impact of tree planting could be 15-30% lower than thought, according to the study. It adds: “The researchers modelled two scenarios. In one, little is done to tackle climate change besides tree planting. In this case, the avoided warming from forests absorbing CO2 was reduced by 23 to 31% when the other forest effects were taken into account. In the second, more optimistic scenario, strong action is taken to reduce further warming. In this case, the avoided warming was reduced by 14 to 18%.” Writing in the Conversation, Weber and his co-author James King write: “Tackling climate change by planting trees has an intuitive appeal. They absorb the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide from the atmosphere without using expensive technology…However, expanding tree cover could affect the climate in complex ways. Using models of the Earth’s atmosphere, land and oceans, we have simulated wide-scale future forestation. Our new study shows that this increases atmospheric carbon dioxide removal, beneficial for tackling climate change. But side-effects, including changes to other greenhouse gases and the reflectivity of the land surface, may partially oppose this.” The Daily Mail also has the story, focusing on celebrities “planting trees to offset the impact of their jet-setter lifestyles”.

There is further coverage of the news, previewed yesterday, that the UK is to leave the energy charter treaty (ECT). Reuters reports: “Britain said on Thursday it will follow other European countries in leaving an international treaty which has been criticised for blocking efforts to fight climate change because its protection of energy investments extends to fossil fuels.” BBC News reports: “Since 2001, nearly 160 legal actions based on the ECT have been brought by investors claiming their investments had been damaged by green policies such as renewable-energy subsidies, and seeking compensation from governments.” The Daily Telegraph says the UK joins “nine EU member states, including France, Spain and the Netherlands” in leaving the treaty. BusinessGreen also has the story.

In other UK news, BusinessGreen reports: “Energy companies, green campaign groups, trade organisations and heat pump manufacturers have teamed up to call on the government to provide a ‘clean heat discount’ for households that use electric heating.” Separately, the Press Association reports: “The average household energy bill is to fall to its lowest point in two years from April after Ofgem lowered its price cap in response to wholesale prices.” Elsewhere, Climate Home News reports that “British civil servants have grave doubts about their government’s favoured techno-fixes for climate-polluting industries like meat production and air travel, new documents show”. It continues: “In risk assessments made public because of an ongoing court case, officials warned that technology to reduce methane emissions from cow burps is ‘nascent’ and there might not be enough plants or hydrogen available to power the world’s planes more sustainably.” Meanwhile, the Daily Telegraph reports that Rolls Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic has warned the company may build its first mini-nuclear reactor in Europe instead of the UK. This would be one of the consequences of “Britain’s slow decision making”, the newspaper says. BusinessGreen reports: “Vauxhall has today announced production of its electric van will begin at its Luton plant from the first half of next year, safeguarding a reported 1,500 jobs at the factory.” The Times reports that “sales of SUVs leapt by more than a fifth in the UK last year, despite a backlash against bigger cars over concerns about air pollution, carbon emissions and road space”. And another Times article reports that “administrators for the collapsed battery factory project Britishvolt have said they are still chasing money from the Australian buyer of the site and are considering other potential deals”.

In UK-related comment, two researchers from the Common Wealth thinktank argue in the New Statesman that “using public borrowing to fund renewable energy projects is cheaper than relying on the private sector”. Writing in the Guardian, Sarah Lunnon, co-founder of campaign group Just Stop Oil, writes under the headline: “Forget Labour and the Tories: the ‘carbon parties’ will not save us. That’s why Just Stop Oil wants your votes.” In a letter to the Guardian, Charles Harris, of the Green party national campaigns committee, says the UK should shift away from centralised energy towards more efficient demand and more localised supply.

China’s ministry of commerce (MOFCOM) has launched a number of measures to promote the low-carbon development of new energy vehicles (NEVs), reports Shanghai Securities News. MOFCOM will “ensure the implementation of policies…enhance the logistics, finance and other trade cooperation support systems, and strengthen cooperation with various countries”, the newswire adds. Finance outlet Yicai reports that China’s NEV industry is experiencing a “shortage of top-flight talent, a shortfall that could exceed one million by next year”. Following foreign minister Wang Yi’s visit to Europe, another Yicai article covers comments by foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning that China and the EU will cooperate in “consolidating international consensus on major topics such as climate change”. The state-run newspaper China Daily carries a commentary by Wang Yiwei of the Institute of Global and Area Studies at Renmin University and the thinktank Center for China and Globalization. He writes that “addressing climate change requires global cooperation, recognising China’s significant role as the world’s factory”. 

Meanwhile, Radio France Internationale interviews Lu Yuhang, a climate policy expert, who says that there is still “much room for improvement in carbon emission calculation” in various industries across China. Industry outlet BJX News carries a commentary by Chen Zheng, a strategic technology expert at China Southern Power Grid, who writes that “establishing a transitional power market mechanism that adapts to green development at the lowest possible reform cost” is a “practical necessity” for the current Chinese power market. Economic Daily publishes a commentary saying that “building a digital smart grid is an essential path to promote the construction of a new power system” that supports the ‘dual-carbon’ targets. 

The Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily carries a commentary by Duan Liguo, associate professor at the school of Marxism at Shandong University, who writes NEVs are increasingly common in rural China and “green consumption has become a new model widely pursued by rural residents”. An editorial in the People’s Daily says that China must “accelerate the green transformation of the development model and incorporate a systemic perspective throughout its ‘dual-carbon’ efforts”. Finally, China Dialogue has published an analysis by Zhang Shuwei, chief economist at Draworld Environment Research Center, who proposes that to better judge whether China has peaked its carbon emissions, “new targets be set for 2025-35” to “minimise the risk of sectoral reform tasks being pushed back beyond 2030 to the point where they eventually come too late”.

The Biden administration has given preliminary approval for nearly $710m in new loans for electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing, Reuters reports. Inside Climate News says a “progress report” on the Inflation Reduction Act finds mixed results: “They found that the adoption of electric vehicles has been at the upper end of their range of expectations, while the deployment of renewable electricity has fallen slightly short of expectations.” The New York Times says: “A year and a half after President Biden signed into law a sweeping bill to tackle climate change, sales of electric vehicles have largely boomed in line with expectations, according to a new analysis by three groups tracking the impact of the law. But problems with supply chains, obtaining permits and overcoming local opposition have bogged down one of the climate law’s other big goals: generating vastly more electricity from wind, solar and other nonpolluting sources.” Separately, Politico reports: “President Joe Biden’s hopes for an electric-car takeover of America’s highways are running into speed bumps – amid weaker-than-expected sales and uncertainty over how the green agenda is playing in the crucial swing state of Michigan.” And the New York Times reports that “an estimated 2.5 million people were forced from their homes in the US by weather-related disasters in 2023, according to new data from the Census Bureau”.

In other US news, Reuters article reports that Vineyard Wind, the “first large-scale US offshore windfarm” has reached a “key milestone”, with five operational turbines now sending enough electricity to shore to power 30,000 homes. Reuters also reports that US officials have given Norwegian firm Equinor approval to start building the Empire 1 and 2 offshore windfarms off the coast of New York. The outlet says the projects could be delivering power by 2026, subject to securing a contract with the state. A third Reuters article reports: “US utility firm Dominion Energy, said on Thursday it would sell a 50% non-controlling interest in its Coastal Virginia offshore wind farm to Stonepeak to help fund construction of the roughly $10bn project.”

Elsewhere, Reuters reports that the US federal government has approved the sale of petrol with higher blends of ethanol, known as E15, in a number of midwest states from next year. It explains: “The government currently restricts sales of E15 gasoline, or gasoline with 15% ethanol, in summer months due to environmental concerns over smog, though the biofuel industry says those concerns are unfounded. The corn-based ethanol industry has been fighting for years for year-round sales of E15 but was frustrated by the 2025 start date, one year later than proposed.” Bloomberg reports: “The Biden administration granted a fuel policy change designed to boost sales of corn-based ethanol – but delayed the shift until next year amid concerns a rapid pivot could spur gasoline price spikes this summer.” Separately, Reuters also reports: “Environmental groups have challenged the Biden administration’s decision to give primary permitting authority to Louisiana over the state’s carbon sequestration wells, which the US government says are key tools to address climate change.”

Quoting “people familiar with the matter”, Reuters reports that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has “removed some of its most ambitious greenhouse gas emission disclosure requirements from corporate climate risk rules it is preparing to adopt”. In related developments, the Hill reports: “Many of the largest US banks and asset managers are retreating from their climate commitments amid rising federal scrutiny and an assault on environmentally conscious investing in state legislatures.” Axios reports that “climate advocacy group launches campaign to fight ESG backlash”. And Reuters reports: “The world’s biggest climate investor group has told members its approach does not breach US antitrust and securities law, according to letters seen by Reuters on Thursday, as leaders seek to shore up support days after the shock exit of several large firms.”

Germany imposed “a multimillion-euro levy” on exports of “natural” gas to other countries, in order to help fund an almost €10bn hole in its budget, reports Politico. The outlet continues that the Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary and Slovakia say the measure “poses significant challenges for the European gas market and has broader implications for energy security, economic competitiveness and regulatory coherence within the EU”, making it harder for EU countries that want to diversify their energy sources away from Russia. Additionally, Klimareporter notes that Germany still continues to import Russian gas via detours through Belgium and the Netherlands. The non-governmental organisation Urgewald criticises that all gas imports not only cause climate and environmental damage but also threaten human rights and energy security, according to the article.

Meanwhile, Süddeutsche Zeitung reports that the German government is considering alternative solutions instead of expropriating Rosneft Germany, the majority owner of the PCK oil refinery, due to concerns about potential Russian retaliatory measures and high compensation claims. A recent meeting of the German government representatives with Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin discussed temporarily suspending nationalisation under certain conditions, notes the outlet. Separately, the Daily Telegraph reports: “German voters have revolted over Elon Musk’s plans to expand a vast Tesla ‘gigafactory’, dealing a setback to his efforts to accelerate production in Europe.” The Daily Telegraph also reports: “The boss of German car giant Mercedes-Benz has said it will make petrol cars ‘well into the 2030s’ as it watered down its targets for electric vehicle (EV) sales.”

Finally, according to German economy minister Robert Habeck, German gas and electricity prices have returned to levels close to the ”pre-crisis level” after rising sharply following the Russian invasion of Ukraine – and are expected to decrease further, reports EurActiv.

The Guardian follows earlier reporting saying that Switzerland “has initiated a global debate on whether the ‘risks, benefits and uncertainties’ of dimming the sun should be studied by a UN expert group”. The newspaper continues: “It is proposing that the world body should gather information about ongoing research into solar geoengineering, and set up an advisory panel that could suggest future options for the untested and controversial approach to reduce global heating, which would have implications for food supply, biodiversity, global inequality and security.” It adds: “[T]he fate of the Swiss proposal hangs in the balance. Senegal, which was initially a co-sponsor, has backed out. Many other nations, including once again the US and Saudi Arabia, have expressed doubts.”

An editorial in the Economist points to figures suggesting the world will need very large quantities of metals between now and 2050. It says: “Today miners have an extra responsibility. If the world is to decarbonise, it will need 6.5bn tonnes of metals between now and 2050, according to the Energy Transitions Committee, a thinktank – and not just lithium, cobalt and nickel, the much-talked-about battery metals, but steel, copper and aluminium, too. Because that output is several times greater than today’s capacity, producing it will require miners to invest more and dig faster.” It continues: “Unfortunately, miners are investing a lot less than they once did, as their latest set of earnings, released this week, confirm…In part that is for sensible reasons…But lately investment decisions have also been tied up in red tape. Governments insist they want to encourage the green transition. Their actions too often say otherwise.” The paper points to “resource nationalism and misguided environmentalism”, adding that “the process of getting permits is outrageously slow”. Finally, it says there is a “hotch-potch of standards [that] raises the cost of building new mines”. It concludes: “If miners will not invest then the energy transition will take longer.” The Financial Times Lex column reflects on the latest financial results for mining giant Anglo American: “Amid falling prices for some industrial metals, the sector is struggling to convince investors of its importance.” It adds: “As much as Anglo American maintains the metals it produces such as platinum and nickel are ‘critical in enabling…sustainable green solutions’, the mining sector has been feeling decidedly old economy of late. Prices of these industrial metals have fallen sharply in the past couple of years. In its full-year results on Thursday, the miner said it would rethink its portfolio.”

In his Chartbook newsletter, economist Adam Tooze looks at progress to date since the announcement in 2021 of the first “just energy transition partnership” (JETP) between South Africa and western donors, including the US, EU and UK. Designed to help countries shift their energy systems onto a lower-carbon pathway while ensuring a “just transition”, he argues that one motivation for the deals – since expanded to Indonesia, Vietnam and Senegal – was as a counterweight to Chinese influence via its “belt and road” initiative. Tooze also suggests that the scheme offers “patently inadequate funding” to the countries involved. He concludes: “The result, as far as the ambitions of global sustainable development are concerned, is not a highly profitable mechanism for the benefit of global finance, or a high-functioning mechanism to propel humanity into a sustainable 21st century, but vacuity. Given the forces at work in the world, this ‘equilibrium’ is highly unstable, prone to crisis and progressively delegitimizing for all involved.”

In the second of a two-part series for BloombergNEF, senior contributor Michael Liebreich sets out five “superheroes of the transition – the five megatrends that will help get the world to net-zero”. Liebreich says that while the five “horsemen of the transition” identified in his first article “are knotty problems of the here-and-now, the five superheroes are powerful longer-term trends, which gives them the advantage”. These are exponential growth of wind, solar and batteries; systems solutions to manage renewable-heavy grids; emerging solutions for sectors previously described as “hard-to-abate” combined with competition between great powers in “a race to own the net-zero industries of the future”; “disappearing demand” for critical minerals thanks to efficiency, substitution and recycling; and what he calls the “primary energy fallacy”, which overestimates the energy that will be needed to deliver energy services through more efficient and lower-carbon means. He concludes: “There is in fact a sixth superhero, or rather a superpower that lies within all of us. I believe society has reached a tipping point beyond which it is unthinkable not to deal with climate change, pollution and environmental degradation…That leaves only one question – particularly in the light of this past year’s deeply troubling temperature anomalies – will we get there in time?”

Elsewhere, Sky News economics editor Ed Conway writes about the “Jevons paradox” for the New York Times under the headline: “The paradox holding back the clean energy revolution.” Conway writes: “There are few examples throughout history of people willingly consuming less energy, either for moral or environmental reasons. This brings us to the biggest problem of all. Nearly every pathway for combating climate change and reducing global carbon emissions assumes not only that we shift to cleaner fuels but – and this is the critical part – that global energy demand actually falls. This is not just incredibly ambitious; it’s unprecedented.” (In his article, above, Liebreich describes this line of thinking as the “primary energy fallacy”, explaining: “The transition is not about replacing all of primary energy demand with something cleaner, it just needs to deliver energy services, a vastly smaller quantum, in a clean way.”)

In his New York Times column, David Wallace-Wells asks “how deadly could climate change be?” He starts by disputing a widely-repeated figure: “I don’t think it’s right to suggest that reaching 2C of warming (which now looks very likely) will mean a billion people dead.” He continues: “[M]any more rigorous estimates, while lower, are still quite shocking. Some calculations run easily into the tens of millions.” He concludes: “There may well be catastrophic surprises in store, as well – extreme disasters, underestimated impacts and rapidly passed tipping points. But the science of climate mortality today suggests a different experience, of even large-scale climate mortality softening into a grim sort of background noise, never quite deafening, no matter how loud it gets.”

A new study finds that human-caused aerosols decrease global rainfall, while greenhouse gas emissions increase both average and extreme rainfall around the world – with the effect being obscured by the two drivers acting in opposition to each other. Researchers use daily rainfall data records dating back to 1900 and estimate the contribution of both aerosols and greenhouse gases, then use climate models to validate their results. They explain that “the conflicting literature on historical precipitation trends can be explained by offsetting aerosol and greenhouse gas signals” and warn that the combination of decreased aerosol “masking” and increased emissions “points toward dramatic increases in flood risk in the near future”.

According to new research, bowhead whales in the Pacific Ocean have significantly altered their migration patterns over the last 12 years as they adapt to “a rapidly changing Arctic”. Using acoustic data from the Chukchi Plateau and the Beaufort Sea, researchers track bowhead presence in these two areas of the Arctic Ocean from 2008 to 2022. They find that both regions are becoming more favourable for the whales to feed and their southward autumn migration has occurred later and later over the decade. They conclude: “Questions remain about prey availability in the Chukchi Sea, implications of migratory changes, such as a northward shift in the core overwintering area, and impact to communities south of the Bering Strait.”